Joboo's Week 9 Picks

So here we are at the end of the regular season already.  We'll talk about the games that impact district and conference standings below.  But let's start off with a look at the teams that could end up with a 0 in their record, both good and bad.  And what are their chances to finish that way.

UNDEFEATED
Six teams are still without a blemish and most, if not all, will still be without one Saturday morning.  But it's not certain.  Here they are ranked by chances of being beaten.

1. Lincoln - Having to travel to 7-1 Cole Camp and make a big jump up in quality could be a shock.
2. Glendale - No one has been able to wear down Glendale yet, but Camdenton is playing as good as they have all year.
3. Greenfield - It's a 5 hour drive to Shelbyville from Greenfield and North Shelby has played a pair of state ranked teams.  They won't be intimidated.
4. Fair Grove - Adrian has a generally solid defense, but they haven't seen an offense like Fair Grove's this year.
5. Mt. View-Liberty - Yes the Eagles didn't blow Salem away in the first half last week.  But they were in control the whole way.
6. Lamar - Seneca has been playing well hanging with both Cassville and Monett the last 2 weeks, but the Tigers aren't dropping this one.

WINLESS
The goal is always to have fewer winless teams than unbeaten, and one team is definitely coming off this list this week.  Ranked by chances of getting a win.

1. Pleasant Hope - The Pirates get Osceola at home giving them a slight edge to pick up the first win.
2. Osceola -They're really 1a. If the Indians don't get it done here, they have a rematch with Lincoln in the first round of districts.
3. McDonald County - The Mustangs have not played that bad and host 1-7 Aurora to finish the year.
4. Cabool - Last year the Bulldogs got their first win in the first round of districts.  This week they have an injury stricken Salem squad.
5. Waynesville - Untimely penalties and turnovers have hurt the Tigers who now have to face Kickapoo.
6. Warsaw - The Wildcats face their toughest competition this year in undefeated Blair Oaks.
7. Springfield Central - Chaminade is one of the best in the state with only a loss to CBC their only blemish.

Game of the Week

• Lincoln (8-0) at Cole Camp (7-1)
• Two things I love about Boone Kroenke's game.  1 - Not only does he have the ability to run, he actively pressures opposing defenses.  Every time he drops back he seems to be saying "I'm looking to pass, but if you give me a an inch of room, you'll regret it."  2 - He can do #1 because he is exceptional at passing on the move.  Whether it's throwing deep or a touch pass, his accuracy while moving is excellent.  He'll need to do both of those things against a Cole Camp defense that is only giving up 10.5 points per game and has only given up more than 2 touchdowns in a game once.  The Bluebird defense will most likely have someone bird dogging Kroenke which will open up some room for Derek Stephens to operate.  Lincoln's defense will have to be strong up front and contain the Bluebirds numerous weapons in the backfield.  They'll want to keep their offense on the field as much as possible.
• Prediction: Both teams are better than last year when Lincoln won 32-6.  But I think Lincoln does the better job shutting down the opposing offense and wins it comfortably.

Big Games

• Sarcoxie (5-2) at Pierce City (3-3)
• Diamond has clinched a share of the SRVC title.  Sarcoxie will try to do the same but the Eagles would love to play the spoiler for their rivals on their home field.
• Prediction: Sarcoxie is focused and they win.
  
• Camdenton (6-2) at Glendale (8-0)
• Only the Lakers stand between Glendale and the undisputed Ozark Conference championship.  As usual, Camdenton is playing their best ball late in the season.
• Prediction: I could see a scenario where this is the closest game Glendale has had all year, but I can't see one where the Falcons lose.
• Carthage (7-1) at Neosho (5-3)
• Carthage can win their first COC Large title outright and secure top seed in their district with a win.  For Neosho, win and they're the #1 and get a bye, lose and they're #3 and play next week.
• Prediction: This should be an upset special, but I don' think so with the way Carthage is playing.  They win.
  
• Carl Junction (6-2) at Nixa (5-3)
• Their district fate will be decided by Carthage/Neosho, but Nixa is reeling losing 3 in a row.  The Bulldogs still have a shot at a share of the COC Large title.  
• Prediction: Another close one for Nixa, but CJ wins.
  
• Reeds Spring (7-1) at Springfield Catholic (5-3)
• Catholic is running around over & through teams and Cassville showed what a good rushing attack can do to the Wolves.  But Reeds Spring is pretty potent too.
• Prediction: The Irish score some points, but they can't slow down Reeds Spring.  Wolves win.

Other Games to Watch

• Greenfield (8-0) at North Shelby (4-4)
• North Shelby has already faced the likes of Worth County and Stanberry who always have state title aspirations.  How will Greenfield stack up?
• Prediction: Greenfield wins, but it may take them a quarter to get going.
• Willow Springs (5-3) at Ava (6-2)
• Willow Springs looked impressive defensively against Thayer and seem ready for the post season.  But Ava continues to look like a clear #3 in the SCA.
• Prediction: Give me Ava.
  
• Mount Vernon (5-3) at Cassville (6-2)
• The Mountaineers beat Cassville last year for their first win over the Wildcats in a while, but Cassville returned the favor during districts.  Big district implications this time around as well.
• Prediction: I'll go with the Wildcats to defend the home turf.
  
• Lighthouse Christian (6-2) at Summit Christian (7-1)
• Big step up in quality for Lighthouse.  Since losing their first game, the average score of Summit’s games has been 53-10 including a 47-0 win over Skyline.
• Prediction: Too much for the Chargers to handle.  Summit wins.
• Osceola (0-8) at Pleasant Hope (0-8)
• Someone is getting their first win tonight.  Osceola is better statistically and has played better lately, but the Pirates have faced a tougher schedule.
• Prediction: This could be a whale of a game, but I think Osceola gets it.

Rest of the Schedule

• Rogersville (3-5) at Buffalo (2-6)
• The Wildcats have had a rough last 3 weeks being outscored 13-145.  Buffalo has fallen off their early form, but can still put points on the board.
• Prediction: Rogersville with a good road win.
  
• Mountain Grove (7-1) at Thayer (4-4)
• Injuries have hit Thayer the last 2 weeks making a tough game with the Panthers even tougher.
• Prediction: Mountain Grove.
  
• Aurora (1-7) at McDonald County (0-8)
• Last chance for the Mustangs to get a win before entering the district of death.  Aurora continues to struggle.
• Prediction: This feels like McDonald County but something is holding me back.  Aurora wins.
  
• Parkview (2-6) at Lebanon (5-3)
• The Vikings are trying to get their mojo back, while Lebanon wants to maintain their momentum heading into districts.
• Prediction: Yellowjackets win.
  
• Adrian (5-3) at Fair Grove (8-0)
• 1 of 2 WEMO/Mid-Lakes crossover games tonight.  The Blackhawks will get to test themselves against the MLC champs.
• Prediction: Blackhawks fail as Fair Grove rolls.
  
• Republic (2-6) at Willard (2-6)
• Willard finally broke through for a win last week, but did not play their best.  Republic has scored more than 14 only once in the last 6 games.
• Prediction: Give me Willard at home.
  
• Rich Hill (1-7) at Liberal (1-7)
• Both team would love to get some post season momentum.  Both would like to defend conference pride.
• Prediction: Give me Liberal.
  
• Ash Grove (6-2) at Strafford (2-6)
• The Indians have lost their 3 home games by 22 points combined.  While the Pirates have dropped 2 of 3 after a 5-0 start.
• Prediction: Strafford defense stifles the Pirates for the win.
  
• Warsaw (0-8) at Blair Oaks (8-0)
• It's been a rough year for the Wildcats and it doesn't get any easier with 8-0 Blair Oaks up next.
• Prediction: Blair Oaks.
  
• Miller (2-6) at Appleton City (6-2)
• Appleton City won last week, but might have still gotten a wake up call as Jasper made it close after the Bulldogs took their foot off the gas.
• Prediction: Some more people learn about Billy Prater as App City wins.
  
• Cass-Midway (7-1) at Sherwood (0-8)
• The Vikings are rolling and look to keep the momentum going against winless Sherwood.
• Prediction: No merry men in Sherwood tonight.  Midway easily wins.
  
• Lone Jack (2-6) at Drexel (5-3)
• Drexel looks to bounce back against a Lone Jack team that isn't as bad as their record.
• Prediction: Drexel wins a tough one.
  
• Webb City (5-3) at Branson (2-6)
• After suffering more turnover woes, the Cardinals look to right the ship against Branson who want to get back on the winning track after falling to Willard last week.
• Prediction: Webb City with the road win.
  
• Archie (2-6) at Diamond (6-2)
• Another SRVC opponent for Archie who gave Lockwood trouble earlier this year.
• Prediction: Diamond closes the regular season with a win.
  
• Hollister (4-4) at Marshfield (2-6)
• Both of Marshfield's wins have come at home but they haven't been pretty.  Hollister has struggled on the road, but are on an emotional high right now.
• Prediction: Probably shouldn't, but I'm going with Hollister.
  
• Marionville (2-6) at Stockton (4-4)
• Both teams have scored more than 21 points only twice this year.  Stockton's defense has been a little better yielding 24 points per game to Marionville's 30.0.
• Prediction: Stockton wins a low scoring game.
  
• Waynesville (0-8) at Kickapoo (7-1)
• Kickapoo will be pulling for Camdenton tonight, but need to take care of business against the Tigers.
• Prediction: Kickapoo stays focused for the win.
  
• East Newton (3-5) at Monett (7-1)
• The Patriots have suddenly won 3 of their last 4 while Monett has struggled some, but they keep winning.  They hold onto the #2 seed with a win.
• Prediction: Monett holds off the Patriots at home.
• Joplin (4-4) at Hillcrest (4-4)
• Joplin still hasn't played a truly good game, while Hillcrest seems to make teams struggle.
• Prediction: I like the Hornets to win at home.
  
• Mt. View-Liberty (8-0) at Houston (1-7)
• Coronation night for Liberty as they look to claim another SCA crown.  Houston will try block the ceremony.
• Prediction: No problems for Liberty.
  
• Jasper (2-6) at Lockwood (7-1)
• Will the SRVC championship below only to Diamond?  Or be split 2 or even 3 ways?  Jasper will try to keep Lockwood from getting their piece.
• Prediction: Lockwood makes it a co-championship at least.
  
• Nevada (2-6) at Clinton (6-2)
• The average margin in Nevada's 6 losses is 27.3 points.  Clinton's average margin in their wins is 10.8 if you take away their win over Central.
• Prediction: Clinton wins handily.
  
• Bolivar (5-3) at Ozark (6-2)
• Not only does Ozark have to avoid an emotional letdown, they can't underestimate Bolivar who is playing much better than they were the first 3 games of the season.
• Prediction: Ozark holds on to win.
  
• Chaminade (6-1) at Springfield Central (0-8)
• The Bulldogs brutal schedule culminates with one of the best teams in Missouri.
• Prediction: Chaminade.
  
• Seneca (3-5) at Lamar (7-0)
• After a good performance against Monett, can the Indians challenge Lamar?
• Prediction: No.  Lamar wins.
  
• El Dorado Springs (3-5) at Skyline (5-3)
• The Bulldogs have put together a decent late season run, but the Tigers have resurrected their season and are on fire.
• Prediction: Skyline rolls at home.
  
• Rolla (1-7) at West Plains (3-5)
• The Zizzers have to be happy with their late season form, but can't avoid to let down against a decent Rolla team.
• Prediction: West Plains gets the win.
  
• Cabool (0-8) at Salem (4-4)
• Cabool has a history of surprising late in the year, while Salem has been hit by injuries and switched back to the wishbone last week.
• Prediction: Salem does enough to win.