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Thursday, October 13, 2016

Biggest Week 9 Games For District Standings

So here we are at the final week.  But there's still a lot to be decided and the most insignificant game could make a big impact.  Here's the games that could decide things down the road.

CLASS 6
District 4

This district is mostly set.  A win for Kickapoo locks up the #1 seed.  Lee's Summit and Lee's Summit West are playing for the #2 and #3 seeds this week.  Joplin still has a slim chance of overtaking Ray-Pec for the #6 seed.  But the #4 and #5 seeds are up for grabs.
  • Jefferson City (5-3) at #4 Rockhurst (5-2) - A loss by the Hawklets combined with a Park Hill win over Blue Springs South would put mighty Rockhurst on the road for the first round.
CLASS 5
District 4

Glendale has the top spot locked up but #2 is up for grabs.  Lebanon and Ozark switched places after last week.  Will they do it again.
  • Bolivar (5-3) at #2 Ozark (6-2)/Parkview (2-6) at #3 Lebanon (5-3) - If Ozark happens to lose, Lebanon would pass them with a win.  But these two are so close that margin of victory comes into play.  With a .10 margin, just 1 point difference would give Lebanon the #2 seed.  Ozark would need to win by 13 or more, or by the same amount as Lebanon wins to keep the #2.
District 5

Still lots left to decide.  The #5 and #6 seeds are still in play for Parkview and Republic, but the real fun is up top.
  • #1 Carthage (7-1) at #2 Neosho (5-3) - If Carthage wins, they are the #1 and Neosho would fall to the #3 due to Nixa beating them and Nixa gets the #2.  If Neosho wins, they are your top seed with Carthage #2 and Nixa #3.
CLASS 4
District 5

Camdenton made up ground on bonus points last week, but Carl Junction still has a good lead of 1.27.  If both win or both lose, there is a slim chance of Camdenton overtaking the Bulldogs on point differential especially if they both lose and the Lakers lose in overtime.  But the real intrigue is for the #4 & #5 spots.
  • Joplin (4-4) at #5 Hillcrest (4-4) - Hillcrest trails #4 Bolivar by 1.04 for the #4 seed and Hillcrest is going to pick up 10 more bonus points this week than Bolivar will.  For those of you good at math, that gives them 1.11 more points added to their total.  So even though Bolivar is in the #4 spot, they have to make up points in score differential to catch Hillcrest.  To sum up, Hillcrest really has their fate in their own hands.  A win over Joplin by 13 or more would give them the #4 seed and a home game with Bolivar.
CLASS 3 
District 1

Salem dropped down to #5 last week but have a very winable game this week.  Potosi lost but still passed Salem due to bonus points.  This week, they have an even tougher contest.
  • #4 Potosi (3-4) at DeSoto (5-3) - Potosi will pick up more bonus points for playing DeSoto so even with a loss, they could stay in the #4 spot.  But with only a .54 lead, if they lose big, and Salem wins big, the Tigers could be home for the first round.
District 3

This district is pretty much set.  Springfield Catholic will be the #3 and most likely host Eldon.  Rogersville will be the #5 and travel to Sullivan, and #8 Buffalo will go to Owensville.  Still a very outside chance that Eldon could pass Rogersville.

District 4

5-8 are set, and barring a Monett loss to East Newton, Reeds Spring is your #1 seed.  I Monett were to lose and Cassville win, Cassville would take the top spot.  But the most likely battle is for the #3 and #4 spots.
  • #4 Mt. Vernon (5-3) at #3 Cassville (6-2) - Last year, Mt. Vernon beat Cassville in the regular season to keep them from jumping over Aurora in to the #3 spot.  This year, they can drop them again with a win which would secure the #3 spot no matter what the points are.
CLASS 2
District 3

Last week settled this almost completely.  #1 Mt. View, #2 Mountain Grove, #3 Ava, and #4 Diamond.

District 4

The top 3 spots belong to Lamar, Fair Grove, and Cole Camp.  El Dorado Springs jumped into the #4 spot last week, but have Skyline this week.  #5 Versailles will pick up bonus points playing Southern Boone, and #6 Stockton is still alive as they host Marionville.  .19 seperates #4 El Do from #6 Stockton.
  • Marionville (2-6) at #6 Stockton (4-4) - Versailles has the inside track with the bonus points from this week, but will most likely fall to SoBoCo.  El Do has a tough matchup in smoking hot Skyline.  That leaves Stockton who if they can win, would most likely pass the other 2 in point differential for the #4 spot.
CLASS 1
District 2

Ash Grove is the #1, but lots of other intrigue.  Thayer sits at #2 but faces Mountain Grove.  #6 Cabool will pick up 20 bonus points facing Salem and could get the #5 spot if Marionville loses.  #8 Pleasant Hope could still pass #7 Miller.  But #3 Sarcoxie and #4 Pierce City is the key game.
  • #3 Sarcoxie (5-2) at #4 Pierce City (3-3) - Sarcoxie could avoid a long road trip if they win and Thayer loses as the Bears would get the #2.  But if Pierce City wins, they jump up to the #3 spot.
District 3

#1 is Cass-Midway, #2 is Lockwood.  Archie and Jasper are set at #5 and #6.  Rich Hill and Liberal are playing to decide who will be #7 and #8.  That leaves Drexel and Adrian fighting over #3 and #4.  #4 Adrian most likely takes a loss to Fair Grove but will pick up 10 bonus points.
  • Lone Jack (2-6) at #3 Drexel (5-3) - With Adrian's bonus points, the gap they have to make up is just .42.  If Drexel wins and Adrian loses, Drexel is the #3.  That's the most likely scenario.  If the Blackhawks win and Drexel loses, Adrian gets the #3. If they both lose or both win, Adrian need to make up 4 points in point differential.  So if Drexel wins by double digits, they're most likely safe.
District 4

Almost everyone is locked in as Lincoln is #1, Appleton City the #4, and Osceola the #8.  #3 Skyline can still catch #2 Crest Ridge as the Tigers will pick up bonus points this week.   But Crest Ridge is playing Windsor so they're probably good at #2.

8-MAN
District 4 

All set.  Greenfield is the #1, will have a first round bye, then play the winner of #3 Norborne and #4 Northwest.

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