Joboo's State Quarterfinal Picks

It's the state quarterfinals.  No small talk, let's get to it.  

CLASS 1

• Valle Catholic (10-1) at Thayer (7-5)
• Valle looks a little different than they did when they faced Lamar in week 7.  Instead of 5'5" 135 lb. Cody Stoll being the feature back, 6'2", 170 lb. Cole Wood is toting the rock mainly and doing a nice job picking up 159 yards and 4 TDs in last week district title win over Hayti, who handled Thayer 26-0 in week 1.  The Bobcats have adapted well to the injuries they have had to deal with especially on the defensive side giving up just 21 points in their 3 district games.  And QB Ayden Stone has given Thayer more versatility on offense even though he struggled last week.
• Prediction: Thayer has gotten past their district opposition, but Valle is another animal.  Even being depleted with injuries themselves, the Warriors are still the class 1 favorite.  And with good reason.  Valle wins.   
• Cass-Midway (11-1) at Lincoln (12-0)
•  Here's what could make this an interesting game.  Skyline showed last week that it is possible to rush against Lincoln. They made some good yards on the Cardinal offense before they feel behind too much & had to go into catchup mode.  That is something Midway can take advantage of with Peyton Richardson toting the rock.  The question is, can anyone contain Lincoln enough to outscore them.  Skyline had the early lead but let a turnover put Lincoln out ahead.  If Midway can get to the lead early & take care of the football, they have the running game to maintain the pace of the game.  But if Lincoln and Boone Kroenke get go into the lead, they tend to hold onto it.  They will get their points, but how many chances will they get?
• Prediction: Obviously Midway has a chance, but barring some turnovers from Lincoln, I don't think they can maintain a ball control game the entire 48 minutes against the Cardinals.  I see Lincoln taking control early and maintaining it. 

CLASS 2

• Mt. View-Liberty (12-0) at Lamar (11-0)
• I know, I know.  You don't need a breakdown here, we know all about this matchup.  And as far as styles, we do.  It's the other components that are interesting.  Last year, Mt. View almost knocked off the Tigers.  Some may say Lamar was overlooking Liberty and won't make that mistake again.  You would be wrong to say that.  Lamar wasn't overlooking anyone.  You don't win 5 straight state titles by overlooking teams.  Mt. View was just that good.  And Mt. View is capable of winning this year.  No other team outside the Big 8 knows Lamar better than Mt. View.  And the Eagles have the speed, tackling, and offensive weapons to stay with Lamar.  The one area where Lamar has an edge is on the line, and they tend to make the most of that edge against teams.
• Prediction: I think last year will give Lamar some special motivation and focus.  They will be sharp.  If they don't commit some turnovers to give Mt. View some extra possessions, look for the Tiger line to control the game for a Lamar win.    

CLASS 3

• Owensville (12-0) at Monett (11-1)
• Great breakdown on this matchup from Jared Lankford at the Monett Times here. This is not the Owensville team I remember from years past.  They still score points putting up 46.1 per game, but they do it out of the spread with 55% of their offensive yards coming rushing.  So they're nicely balanced.  QB Wyatt Ellis has passed for over 2,300 yards and rushed for over 1,000 to lead the team.  And they are fast.  Defensively, they are high risk/high reward as they like to blitz from a variety of looks and have registered 26 sacks, picked off 19 passes, and recovered 17 fumbles this year.  But they give up almost 22 points per game.  And they are not deep with 37 players listed on their roster and a number of players going both ways.
• Prediction: The Dutchmen are a great matchup for Monett.  The Cubs have playmakers Owensville has to respect, and the hammering running game that can wear them down. I think it stays close for a while, maybe deep in to the game if Owensville hits some big plays, but the Cubs take command down the stretch.

CLASS 4

• Harrisonville (9-3) at Webb City (9-3)
• You like to compare records?  These 2 are even.  How about common opponents?  They both beat Pittsburg, KS 28-7.  Points scored & allowed?  Webb City scores 2.2 points more and gives up 1.6 points more.  So scoring margin is almost identical.  And just for good measure, both teams avenged a regular season loss with a dominating win in their district title game.  And both have been playing great lately.  Harrisonville has won 6 in a row after dropping 3 games in a row for a 3-3 start.  After losing their first 2 games, the Cardinals have went 9-1.  So while these may not be 2 of the greatest teams these 2 programs have turned out, this should be a classic meeting between them.
• Prediction: I think this game will be summation of Webb City's season.  They have remade themselves offensively while the defense has been solid all year.  The Wildcats will be tough, but I think Webb City executes their game plan completely and win.

CLASS 5

• Ft. Zumwalt North (10-1) at Glendale (11-0)
• Combined, these 2 teams average 104.3 points per game with Glendale scoring 56.6 to North's 47.7.  And the Panthers give up just 18.5 points per game compared to Glendale's 24.5.  North runs primarily the single back spread like Glendale, but they make most of their yards running with QB Cade Brister the leader at 1,609 yards and 35 TDs.  He's also passed for 1,192 and 15 TDs.  Also dangerous out of the backfield are Deiondre Stockton who has 9 TDs and averages almost 10 yards per carry, and Jack Ederer who has rushed for 588 yards and goes for 12 yards per carry.  So we're in for a great game right?  Hold on.  North only beat 3 teams all year with a winning record including district play. And the combined record of the teams they have beaten is just 35-51. But their only loss is to class 4 quarterfinalist Ladue Horton Watkins who is 11-1.
• Prediction: I honestly don't see any way the Panthers can keep up with Glendale's scoring output.  They have some good athletes and seem to be fairly deep on defense, but I don't think it's nearly enough to slow down Glendale.  Feels like a comfortable win for Glendale.
• Carthage (10-1) at Battle (11-0)
• The COC Large has been tough, but this is the best team Carthage will face this year.  The Spartans have 4 star Nebraska commit Jaevon McQuitty at WR and he is a difference maker.  McQuitty is tall (6'2"), fast, has great hands, and is as fundamentally sound as can be.  He also returns kicks and has to be accounted for at all times.  And QB Brevinn Tyler knows how to find him deep, but can also flat run past defenders.  Defensively, DE Kiondre Hall is a bit light at 205, but is incredibly quick to the ball and has the speed to track down running backs.  If there is a knock on them, it's that their schedule hasn't been great.  They have beat 5 winning teams, but that includes class 4 Hannibal and class 3 Mexico.  But make no mistake, they are an excellent team.  Here's the deal though, Carthage can beat them.  DT Tucker Edmonson and crew can put pressure on the Spartans and have shown they're solid tacklers.  If the Tigers DBs can keep McQuitty in front of them, they should be able to keep them from exploding for a huge number.  And QB Keith Guest II has to be covered by the Spartan defense as he can hurt them with his legs.  That means receiver Arkell Smith should be able to find room to get open.  If the Tiger offensive line and Guest's mobility can buy him enough time to operate, Carthage will get their points. 
• Prediction: So let's get to brass tacks.  Carthage has the tools to win, including the coaching of John Guidie and staff.  But they may still need some breaks.  And Battle always seems to play a disciplined game.  On their home turf, I think it's close, but the Spartans prevail.