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Friday, November 4, 2016

Joboo's District Finals Picks

Out of 340 teams that started the season in all classes, only 48 will claim a district title tonight.  Some things aren't great about the current district football setup, but championships aren't one of them.  In the old system, roughly 1 out of every 4 teams won a district championship with the second place team advancing to the state payoffs.  Now, a district title is really meaningful.  For local teams, we could have as many of 11 teams or as few as 9 remaining after tonight.  Here's what to expect tonight.

8-MAN

District 4
  • #2 Sacred Heart (6-3) at #1 Greenfield (9-0)
    • Greenfield beat Sacred Heart in week 2 48-32, but the Gremlins were confident after their win last week over Norborne.  Greenfield forced 4 turnovers in the first matchup which is right in line with what they average this season.  Both teams have improved since.
    • Prediction: This may be close early as the Wildcats haven't played in almost 3 weeks, but I think they get back in the groove fast enough to win.
CLASS 1

District 2
  • #2 Thayer (6-5) at #1 Ash Grove (8-3)
    • The Bobcats seem to be getting hot at the right time and their injury woes seem to be behind them. Sophomore QB Ayden Stone is really starting to come into his own as a dual threat.  While the Pirates have recovered from a rough stretch to end the regular season with a pair of dominating wins.  Spencer Eagleburger is the key to their offensive fortunes and will need to be productive.
    • Prediction: Thayer has the team speed to contain the Pirates and the weapons to put up enough points. I'm taking the Bobcats.
District 3
  • #2 Lockwood (8-2) at #1 Cass-Midway (10-1)
    • This is about as even a match up as you are going to find in a district final.  The difference in their scoring margins is just 1.5 with Midway outscoring opponents by 16.9 and Lockwood by 15.4. Points per game and points allowed are within 2.4 points also.  Strength of schedule is close as well.  So what's the difference?  Maybe experience.  Lockwood has made the district title game once in the last 5 years while this is Midway's 5th straight appearance.  
    • Prediction: The Vikings have been getting it done all year, I think they do it here.
District 4
  • #2 Skyline (8-3) at #1 Lincoln (11-0)
    • The Tigers and Shawn Bryan are as hot as can be offensively averaging just under 50 points per game the last 6 games.  But defensively Skyline tends to allow their opponents to reach their average.  That's bad news with Lincoln averaging over 51 points per game.  And the Cardinals yield just 4.6 points per game.  Skyline's strength of schedule is far above what Lincoln has played.  Will that pay off?
    • Prediction: The Cardinals have the tools on defense to contain Skyline.  Their offense should be able to cover whatever they defense allows.  Lincoln wins.
CLASS 2

District 3
  • #2 Mountain Grove (10-1) at #1 Mt. View-Liberty (11-0)
    • Since the Eagles jumped all over the Panthers in their previous meeting, Grove has been playing with an edge and pummeling opponents pitching 3 shutouts in 5 games.  But Mt. View has allowed the same number of points since then as Grove, they've averaged 53.4 points per game in that stretch, and they have yet to lose to a lower ranked opponent in this district system.   
    • Prediction: Look for the Panthers to try to go physical, but I think the Eagles pull it out.
District 4
  • #2 Fair Grove (11-0) at #1 Lamar (10-0)
    • So here's the deal.  Fair Grove has a good deal of offensive weapons to spread the field and not allow a defense to focus in one area.  And their defense allows just over 12 points per game.  And I honestly don't think any of that makes a difference as Lamar is just too good up front.  Defensively they don't have to focus on any one area as they have talent all over the field.  The Eagles will be stretched trying to keep up with the Tigers offensively.
    • Prediction: Just too much from Lamar on both sides for Fair Grove to handle.  Lamar wins another district title.
CLASS 3

District 4
  • #4 Mt. Vernon (7-4) at #2 Monett (10-1) 
    • Their week 3 meeting ended with the Cubs pulling away from a 7-6 2nd quarter game with 28 consecutive points.  The next week Sammy Robinson emerged as a strong ground threat for Mt. Vernon and the Mountaineers started to roll.  And while the Cubs have struggled with rushing attacks, they keep winning regardless of the challenge.
    • Prediction: This feels like a great game waiting to happen, but I think the Cubs prevail in the end.
CLASS 4

District 4
  • #6 Rolla (3-8) at Parkway West (7-4)
    • The Longhorns are a solid defensive team giving up more than 21 points only once, and 20 or more 3 times.  And they only have 1 loss by more than a single score.  All of their wins have been 28 points or more.  They have a balanced offense that is slightly passing heavy.  The Bulldogs are equipped to handle them with a strong rushing attack, but they are fighting history as only 1 #6 seed has won a district title game.
    • Prediction: I want to pick the Bulldogs, but I just feel the Longhorns are ready to handle business.
District 5
  • #2 Webb City (8-3) at #1 Carl Junction (9-2)
    • The rematch of the district season.  The Cardinals seem to have turned their season around with an influx of young talent.  And their defense has been dominant only allowing more than 17 points once.  But Carl Junction has been on fire offensively averaging 51.5 ppg over the last 4 games.  And defensively they've only allowed more than 21 points once this year.
    • Prediction: Webb City's turnover woes plus Carl Junction being so hot has me going with the Bulldogs.
CLASS 5

District 4
  • #2 Ozark (8-2) at #1 Glendale (10-0)
    • The most interesting clash of styles that we'll see this year.  Ozark is a great defensive unit and they generate offense by forcing turnovers.  But their points per game is less than half of what Glendale puts up.  And the Falcons defense allows less than 4 points per game more than Ozark.  Ozark doesn't bring an inordinately large of amount of pressure on the QB meaning Glendale is going to score some points.  So it's up to Ozark to eat up possession and limit their chances.
    • Prediction: I think once the Falcons take the lead, Ozark will not be able to catch up.  Glendale wins.
District 5
  • #2 Nixa (6-4) at #1 Carthage (9-1)
    • Carthage defeated the Eagles 25-7 in week 7 as the Tigers dominated the game.  Nixa got a nice win last week over Neosho, and may have some additional confidence from it.  But Carthage has been picking off teams with increased confidence every game since playing Nixa.
    • Prediction: I don't see anything that indicates a change in the result.  Carthage wins.

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