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Thursday, November 24, 2016

Joboo's Show-Me Bowl Picks

And here we are.  After literally thousands of games being played starting in the middle of August, we have just 5 games left.  Except for the annual Webster Grove/Kirkwood Thanksgiving Day game but that's just for fun.

It's Show-Me Bowl weekend and it's right here in the Ozarks for the first time since 1995.  The Big 8 sends their 2 best to contend for a state title, and both have a real chance to do it.  Here's how we see it.

CLASS 2
  • Lamar (13-0) vs Trinity Catholic (12-0) - Fri. 3 PM
    • The first obvious impulse for folks in the area is to say 'This is an easy pick.  No one can beat Lamar.'  I'm sure most of you realize how absurd that is, and have no doubt that Trinity is capable of winning this game.  They have a similar attack to the offense that Blair Oaks ran so well against Lamar in the 2012 Show-Me Bowl.  QB Isaiah Williams has passed for over 2,200 yards and 28 TDs with just 9 interceptions.  And he's rushed for over 800 yards and 18 TDs.  And he is just one of their weapons as they have 4 other players who have scored 10 or more touchdowns, and each one has multiple scores both rushing and receiving.  They are explosive averaging 51.75 ppg having been held under 40 points just once.  Defensively they are aggressive and use their team speed well allowing just over 10 ppg and having 3 shutouts and 4 games where they allowed just 6 points. 
    • Prediction: I think the Titans get some points offensively.  But defensively, they are in a pickle.  If they continue to play their highly aggressive style, they will get torn to shreds.  But the alternative is to play a more reserved, less familiar style against an offense they have yet to see.  Lamar will have no problem putting points up and should be able to get title #6.
CLASS 3
  • Monett (13-1) vs Maryville (14-0) - Sat. 11 AM
    • Much like Lamar, many people see Maryville and assume they will win automatically.  But that is far from the case here.  Monett is very well equipped to deal with the Spoofhounds on both sides of the ball.  But it's a challenge on both sides.  Maryville averages 49.9 points per game including a mind boggling 92 earlier this year against Cameron, and they allow just 9 per game.  They are battle tested.  The last 4 teams they have beaten finished with a combined record of 40-9.  QB Trey Oglesby is a very good passer and has dangerous receivers like John Zimmerman who he syncs up with very well.  They also can run the rock even though leading rusher Bob Bruckner left last week's game with an injury.  But their strength is their line on offense which is big and executes incredibly well.  They have size & strength in their front 7 on defense as well, and their pressure will be something Monett has to account for.
    • Prediction: The Cubs can win this game, but their offensive line will have to play the game of their lives.  Monett cannot totally shut down the Spoofhound offense, but they can slow them down.  That means their best chance to win is grind out some long drives, eat up time of possession, and keep the Maryville O off the field.  Unfortunately, I don't think they can do that for an entire game.  I think it's close for a while, but ultimately, Maryville wins a tough game.

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