Every week when I make my picks, the first thing I do is highlight the teams that I think are a sure thing. As I'm typing up the article, those are the ones I do first and very rarely do I change my mind about them. With high school football being what it is, different size schools, different classes, etc. there is usually a good percentage of sure things and although there is an occasional surprise, my percentage on picking those games if very high. This week, there are a lot of sure things. And that makes me nervous.
But there are also some really good games happening including the kind of matchup we haven't seen in years. Class 2 #1 ranked Lamar travels to meet class 1 #1 ranked Valle Catholic. We'll talk more on this, but this is a special game. Enjoy it.
The finish to the COC large season is going to be crazy. How crazy may be determined this week. 6 of the 9 teams in the league are within 1 game of the top of the standings. But the 2 teams sharing the lead meet Friday in Nixa and Carthage. Fair Grove, Mt. View-Liberty and Sarcoxie could each clinch at least a share of their respective conference championships this week. And the district implications are beyond calculation. But we'll start with the big game in the state call the way down in Cape Girardeau on Saturday.
Game of the Week
- Lamar (5-0) Class 2 #1 at Valle Catholic (6-0) Class 1 #1 - Saturday
- As a fiscal conservative and proponent of responsible school spending, I can't condone spending the money for travel this trip presents. As a high school football fan... YEAH BABY! Lamar and Valle are playing !!! What a privilege to see these two giants of Missouri football meet. The 5 time class 2 champs who have won 5 in a row, and the 14 time champs who have won 3 class 1 titles in a row. And they are both primed for another one this year. You know about Lamar with the great offensive ground game and defense. Well Valle brings a potent offense and very salty defense as well. QB Mason Skaggs is a great fit for coach Judd Naeger's system. He can run the ball, passes extremely well, and is very poised rarely making the big mistake. Skaggs' main target is receiver 6'2" Cole Wood but he'll also utilize 6'2" tight end Cole Keeley. And toting the rock is Cody Stoll who is undersized at 5'5" and 135, but is a playmaker. Defensively, the Warriors are yielding just under 14 points per game and have pitched 2 shutouts.
- Valle always plays better and bigger than they are. They operate precisely and go all out. They also have big play ability which is the main threat in this game. They will want to hit some big plays to keep their offense fresh. Speed on defense is their best hope to contain Lamar. They have it and tackle well.
- Prediction: Lamar's defensive backfield should be able to keep the passing damage to a minimum which should keep the Warriors within range. Even if they go up early, I think the Tiger's depth and physicality will wear them down in the end. I think Lamar wins comfortably, but not by turbo clock.
Big Games
- Lockwood (4-1) at Sarcoxie (5-1)
- A win for the Bears secures at least a share of the SRVC championship and knocks Lockwood out of the chase. A Lockwood win forges a 3 way tie atop the standings along with Diamond.
- Prediction: Sarcoxie looks to be the cream of the crop in the Spring River. I think they take it at home.
- Nixa (5-1) at Carthage (5-1) Class 5 #9
- Carthage has a chance to get one hand on the COC title with a win although they still have to go to Republic and Neosho. If Nixa survives, they still have arch rival Ozark and Carl Junction remaining.
- Prediction: Nixa will be looking to bounce back from their loss last week, but I believe Carthage has proven they are the team to beat in the COC. Tigers win.
- Ozark (4-2) at Webb City (4-2) Class 4 #4
- Consider this a playoff game in the COC title tournament. The loser is out, the winner is still very alive.
- Prediction: The Tigers have shown some defensive vulnerability lately. The Cardinals will make them pay. Webb for the win.
- Ava (4-2) at Thayer (4-2) Class 1 #10
- The winner here likely finishes 3rd in the SCA. Ava has Diamond nipping at their heels for the #3 seed in their district, while Thayer is hoping to overtake Ash Grove in theirs.
- Prediction:Thayer is going to be a tough out in class 1, but I think Ava gets them here.
- Salem (4-2) at Mountain Grove (5-1) Class 2 #6
- Salem is still alive for the SCA title and is trying to maintain their #2 spot in their district. The Panthers will hope to get back on track after a disappointing performance last week.
- Prediction: Grove bounces back well.
Other Games to Watch
- Lebanon (4-2) at Joplin (4-2)
- Joplin still has a chance to move up & host a district game as the teams in front of them have some tough competition ahead. The Yellowjackets could still secure the #2 spot and a bye in their district. Both didn't look their best last week.
- Prediction: Toughest pick of the week, but I'm going with Joplin.
- Aurora (1-5) at Mt. Vernon (4-2)
- Big district implications here in addition to the rivalry. The Houn Dawgs seem set in the #7 spot with Seneca ahead of them, but the Indians and Hollister have some tough games ahead. If Aurora could beat Mt. Vernon, they could get a big boost in the seeds in a couple of weeks.
- Prediction: The Mountaineers may be the 3rd best team in the Big 8. They win.
- Greenfield (6-0) at Northwest (Hughesville) (3-2)
- Huge game for Greenfield as Northwest is 2nd in their district standings. A win here could ensure the Wildcats would get a potential district title game at home.
- Prediction: Northwest lost 66-6 to Sacred Heart who Greenfield beat by 18 in week 2. Greenfield stays unbeaten.
- Cabool (0-6) at Mt. View-Liberty (6-0) Class 2 #2
- The Eagles can sew up a share of their 4th SCA title in a row and 7th in 8 years with a win.
- Prediction: It would take a big letdown from last week to make them vulnerable. Liberty wins.
- Fair Grove (6-0) Class 2 #8 at Marionville (2-4)
- Unlike Liberty, Fair Grove hasn't won a conference title since 2011. Taking down the Comets would secure at least a piece of the pie this year.
- Prediction: Eagles clinch with a win.
Rest of the Schedule
- Lighthouse Christian (4-2) at Springfield Central (0-6) - Thursday
- Tough call here. The Chargers seem to be hitting their stride. But this is really Central's last chance to get a win with Clinton and Chaminade ahead.
- Prediction: I want to say Central wins, but they just look down & out. Chargers.
- Parkview (2-4) at Hillcrest (2-4) – Thursday
- Hillcrest hasn't won a home game so far (0-3) and Parkview barely beat Rolla on the road then got throttled at Camdenton.
- Prediction: I'll go with Parkview to get back on the winning side.
- Warsaw (0-6) at Hallsville (2-4)
- Best chance for Warsaw to pick up a win this year with Hallsville getting shut out twice in their last 3 games.
- Prediction: Hallsville is still just a little too good for the Wildcats.
- Seneca (3-3) at Cassville (4-2)
- Barring an upset, Cassville can't do better than the 3rd seed in their district. And they probably have to win out to do that. Seneca can better their seed with a win.
- Prediction: Cassville stays strong and wins.
- Jasper (1-5) at Liberal (1-5)
- Liberal is trying to avoid getting shut out in the SRVC after coming so close to getting their first win last week.
- Prediction: I think Jasper is a tough matchup for Liberal. Eagles win.
- Branson (1-5) at Republic (2-4)
- The Pirates picked up their first win and are now in place to host a district game. Republic can still pull that off themselves with a good finish.
- Prediction: Tigers take it.
- Kickapoo (5-1) Class 6 #8 at West Plains (2-4)
- After a great comeback against Lebanon last week, can the Zizzers pull off another win against the Chiefs?
- Prediction: Kickapoo holds off the Zizzers.
- Cass-Midway (5-1) at Rich Hill (1-5)
- The Vikings already have the WEMO title wrapped up so this is all about recovering some momentum after losing to Butler last week.
- Prediction: The Vikings get the win and some momentum.
- Hollister (3-3) at Springfield Catholic (3-3)
- Both need this one for district standings and both have been up and down this season. The Irish have averaged 42 points in their 3 wins, 14.7 in their 3 losses.
- Prediction: Catholic wins at home.
- Adrian (3-3) at Osceola (0-6)
- The Blackhawks gave up 60 last week after giving up 80 total in the first 5 games. Not sure what happened but they should get back on track with the Indians.
- Prediction: Adrian keeps Osceola winless.
- Buffalo (2-4) at Bolivar (3-3)
- These two have had opposite seasons. Buffalo has lost the early head of steam they built up while Bolivar has recovered their mojo.
- Prediction: Liberators move above .550.
- Ash Grove (5-1) at Pleasant Hope (0-6)
- The Pirates still have a shot at a share of the Mid-Lakes championship and top seed in their district. But they can't slip up here.
- Prediction: They won't. AG wins.
- Skyline (3-3) at Strafford (2-4)
- Skyline is also still in the Mid-Lakes hunt. They need a win here and help from their foe of last week, Ash Grove.
- Prediction: Tigers do their part and beat Strafford.
- Archie (1-5) at Appleton City (4-2)
- I'm calling last week's offensive explosions for both teams an aberration as through the first five week they combined to score 37 ppg. Of course they're only giving up 36 combined.
- Prediction: Now that the bad luck is off their back, I like Archie.
- Rolla (1-5) at Glendale (6-0) Class 5 #3
- The Bulldogs have been feisty this year, but the Falcons are in a whole other class right now.
- Prediction: Falcons win.
- McDonald County (0-6) at Monett (5-1) Class 3 #4
- The Mustangs are still looking for their first win while Monett is getting ready for the playoffs.
- Prediction: Cubs keep winning.
- Waynesville (0-6) at Camdenton (4-2)
- With Glendale and Kickapoo in the next 2 weeks, the Tigers best chance to win is now.
- Prediction: Nope, Lakers win.
- Carl Junction (4-2) Class 4 #5 at Willard (1-5)
- Willard has been in every game except Webb City and now they get Carl Junction coming off of a loss.
- Prediction: Hard luck continues for Willard. Bulldogs win.
- Willow Springs (3-3) at Houston (1-5)
- After starting out 3-0, the Bears have fallen back to .500. Breaking that skid won't be easy with a trip to Houston.
- Prediction: Could be a close one, but the Bears win.
- Drexel (4-2) at Sherwood (0-6)
- Drexel has seen their offense really get rolling the last 3 weeks. They've averaged 37.7 points, more than Sherwood has scored all year.
- Prediction: Drexel wins.
- Neosho (4-2) at Rogersville (3-3)
- While it doesn't count in the conference standings, Neosho could still take the top seed in their district. They need to keep winning. Rogersville will pick up some big bonus points for playing up & could still move up to the 3rd seed.
- Prediction: Neosho drops the Wildcats.
- Diamond (4-2) at Miller (2-4)
- After falling to Sarcoxie, the Wildcats are hoping for some hope in the SRVC. Miller is trying to build off of their comeback win over Liberal.
- Prediction: Diamond takes it.
- Stockton (3-3) at Butler (5-1)
- The Tigers are in the running to host a district game, but they have a tough challenge ahead of them.
- Prediction: Butler drops Stockton below .500.
- Nevada (2-4) at DeSoto, KS (3-1)
- With 2 wins in their last 3 games, the Tigers are playing well. But DeSoto is a pretty solid squad that is aiming for a playoff run this year.
- Prediction: DeSoto drops Nevada.
- Slater (1-4) at Lincoln (6-0) Class 1 #4
- This week’s game to look away from because it won’t be pretty. You know what Lincoln has done. Slater lost 76-0 to El Dorado Springs in their last game 2 weeks ago.
- Prediction: Cover the eyes of the children. Lincoln.
- East Newton (1-5) at El Dorado Springs (2-4)
- The Bulldogs are well rested coming into this one after a forfeit last week. Meanwhile, despite just 1 win, Patriot fans have to be encouraged by what they have seen so far.
- Prediction: East Newton gets win #2.
- Marshfield (2-4) at Reeds Spring (5-1)
- The Wolves still have work to do, but a win against Marshfield will move them to the cusp of being the first team other than Bolivar to be the COC Small champion.
- Prediction: Almost home, Wolves win.
